Caelum Lapsus?

2006-01-19T17:57:00.000-08:00

Is the Real Estate Sky really Falling?

From a recent cover of the Economist to continuous babbling on CNBC, one would think the realty market is over. You might as well sell all your properties, join the convent or monastery and shed your worldly possessions.

I too have reviewed all the bubble blogs, which are now flowing into the established media. But while so many are spewing the venom of collapse, they are equally countered by non-gloomers who believe we are experiencing just another seasonal slowdown that happens every year during the winter months.

The value of American real estate on average appreciates about 3-4 percent a year(differences allotted for regional variance) and has done so since records were kept. And because the American economy is about as close to the model of true market capitalism, it's normally riddled with up and down cycles. Extremists usually refer to them as booms and busts.

The true value of property has nothing to do with real economic numbers, but is instead an illusion of mass consciousness. You may have heard about the heard mentality. This is the same collective consciousness that ran up the stock markets in the late 90's. The big question now, at the precise point in time, is if we are again at the top of a ridge, where the heard is about to tepidly shuffle down the side because the upward view seems hazy?

If enough choose to go down the side, more and more will feel pressured to follow. As the momentum picks up steam we could see a large de-valuation in the entire real estate market.

The doom and gloomers are trying their hardest to push as many over the side in order to spark a downward cycle. On the other hand, the majority of professionals in the real estate, lending, and even government associated industries are working effortlessly to prevent the heard destroying themselves.

For the dueling parties it's all about money! The majority of naysayers are most likely aligned with industries poised to benefit from a real estate collapse, while the other side looses.

In this epic battle the real numbers only become pons for each side to prove their case. Hoping in the end, they can push the heard in the direction which benefits their side. In this high stakes game, where real people, real families, and real children’s lives are on the line to either stay the course or loose significantly.

It's all about perception!

Trucido Appositus

2006-01-10T20:40:00.000-08:00

Return your Mercedes, dock your boats, give back your Rolex and go to church. Aren't these just good philosophies to live by anyways? Women; tend to your children at home, cook your family dinner, do the laundry and respect your husband. Men; stop your gambling, drinking, smoking and sports addictions. Teach your children, hug your daughters, wrestle with your sons and praise your wife. Children; do as your parents say, restrain from sex, listen to your teachers, be kind to your friends and love your siblings. Teachers; do what is right for your students, prepare them to honestly compete and cherish your self-modesty. Lawyers; do what is right, not what is right for you. Doctors; help the sick, read the Hippocratic oath, drive a ford, trust in God. Businesses; take only what you need, honor your employees, support charities, and slow down. Politicians; do the same as lawyers.

These are the principals that any society, in any time and in any region of the globe need to live by in order to sustain.

The nature of this blog is primarily focused on the American National Real Estate Industry, which from all economies are made. You see, the lawyer and the doctor and the teacher and the child and the parent will all eventually come home at the end of the day. Even the President lives in the 'White House,' which is a symbolic capital asset to the principles of democracy to the rest of the world.

But with democracy comes freedom and with freedom comes responsibility and with responsibility comes restraint. And without restraint, capitalism is doomed. Hence the rise of dictators, kings and tyrants throughout the ages.

Societies that loose self control eventually become ruled.

Live within your means, visit with your neighbors, walk your dog, (if you don't have a dog, adopt one from the pound), take care of your own yard (if you have kids, make them do it for an allowance) and drive the speed limit.

These are the values people will eventually return to when the International real estate bust happens. Those who are already practicing this type of lifestyle will have nothing to fret about, those who we think are wealthy and moving ahead will soon be humbled and the true perpetrators will be dealt with.

If your house is not in order, do it now and do it quickly. Get ready to hunker down, re-kindle ties with relatives and apologize to those you have wronged. You are going to need their help and they are going to need yours.

The real estate bust is inevitable; any properly trained economist can see the indicators. Many are already warning us, but fail to give advice on what to do.

Please return your life back to reality and what is right. Cherish the simple and wake up happy!

The Daily Chattels Candor

Caelum Lapsus?

Trucido Appositus